Charleroi 3–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Charleroi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cercle Brugge

Marco Ilaimaharitra 60'

Victor Osimhen 53'

Cristian Benavente 16'

Adrien Bongiovanni 85'

12/1/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 17Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Charleroi42%

×Draw25%

Cercle Brugge33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharleroiExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.34

Charleroi

1.53

Cercle Brugge

1.34

Charleroi creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

1.55

creates per match

1.49

1.19

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Charleroi

1.55

Cercle Brugge

1.49

allows per match

Charleroi

1.19

Cercle Brugge

1.51

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Charleroi-0.13scores less

Cercle Brugge-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw

67%

Charleroi or Cercle Brugge

75%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

58%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+

21%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals

78%

Charleroi 2+ goals

45%

Charleroi 3+ goals

20%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

74%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

39%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)

56%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.19 · 24 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.51 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.55 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cercle Brugge attack 1.49 + Charleroi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Charleroi scores more

42%

level

25%

Cercle Brugge scores more

33%

Charleroi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Cristian Benavente↳ Massimo Bruno

23'

Naomichi Ueda← Benjamin Lambot

35'

37'

50'

51'

53'

Victor Osimhen↳ Cristian Benavente

56'

Adrien Bongiovanni← Kevin Appin

60'

Marco Ilaimaharitra

70'

Christophe Diandy← Marco Ilaimaharitra

70'

Kylian Hazard← Irvin Cardona

72'

Jérémy Perbet← Cristian Benavente

79'

Adama Niane← Victor Osimhen

84'

Gabriele Angella

85'

Adrien Bongiovanni

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CharleroiCercle

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots5

2Corners3

12Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots5

7On Target1

9Off Target4

Passing

62%Possession38%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

7Offsides0

Match Recap: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge

Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 1, 2018.

Goals: Cristian Benavente (16'), Victor Osimhen (53'), Marco Ilaimaharitra (60'), Adrien Bongiovanni (85').

Charleroi controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Charleroi.

Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge