Charleroi 0–1 Antwerp: Result & Stats

Charleroi

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Antwerp

V. Janssen 10'

7/28/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Round 1Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Charleroi44%

×Draw26%

Antwerp30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharleroiExpected goals in this matchAntwerp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Charleroi

1.48

Antwerp

1.19

Charleroi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 37 away

1.51

creates per match

1.24

1.14

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Charleroi

1.51

Antwerp

1.24

allows per match

Charleroi

1.14

Antwerp

1.46

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Charleroi-0.21scores less

Antwerp-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi ↓

Antwerp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Charleroi or draw

70%

Charleroi or Antwerp

74%

Draw or Antwerp

56%

Winning margin

Charleroi wins by 2+

21%

Antwerp wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charleroi 1+ goals

77%

Charleroi 2+ goals

43%

Charleroi 3+ goals

19%

Antwerp 1+ goals

70%

Antwerp 2+ goals

33%

Antwerp 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Charleroi (draw refunded)

59%

Antwerp (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi attack 1.51 + Antwerp defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Antwerp attack 1.24 + Charleroi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Charleroi scores more

44%

level

26%

Antwerp scores more

30%

Charleroi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

S. Lammens

Antwerp · G

8.0

Match Events

10'

V. Janssen↳ T. Alderweireld

15'

Jeremy Petris

64'

Etienne Camara

64'

Oday Dabbagh← É. Camara

64'

A. Bernier← I. Mbenza

64'

Y. Badji← Y. Sylla

67'

J. Ondrejka← J. Ekkelenkamp

67'

M. Keita← T. Chery

76'

Vetle Winger Dragsnes

78'

G. Kerk← M. Doumbia

82'

M. Nzita← V. Dragsnes

83'

Vincent Janssen

84'

Y. Titraoui← A. Zorgane

84'

A. Yusuf← J. Bataille

88'

Yassine Titraoui

90+1'

Daan Heymans

90+2'

Denis Odoi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharleroiAntwerp

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots12

0.78Expected Goals (xG)1.86

5Corners6

15Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target4

5Off Target6

1Blocked2

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

459Total Passes465

373Accurate Passes391

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

1.00Goals Prevented1.00

Discipline

15Fouls7

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Charleroi vs Antwerp

Antwerp beat Charleroi 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on July 28, 2024.

Goals: V. Janssen (10').

Charleroi controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Charleroi.

Charleroi vs Antwerp — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Charleroi vs Antwerp