Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Brusque: Result & Stats

Chapecoense-sc

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brusque

Bruno Leonardo 85'

Olávio 34'

7/15/2024

Serie B · Round 15Arena Condá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Chapecoense-sc53%

×Draw27%

Brusque20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chapecoense-scExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.79

Chapecoense-sc

1.45

Brusque

0.79

Chapecoense-sc creates 84% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 57 away

1.22

creates per match

0.63

0.95

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Chapecoense-sc

1.22

Brusque

0.63

allows per match

Chapecoense-sc

0.95

Brusque

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapecoense-sc+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapecoense-sc ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chapecoense-sc or draw

80%

Chapecoense-sc or Brusque

73%

Draw or Brusque

47%

Winning margin

Chapecoense-sc wins by 2+

27%

Brusque wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chapecoense-sc 1+ goals

77%

Chapecoense-sc 2+ goals

42%

Chapecoense-sc 3+ goals

18%

Brusque 1+ goals

55%

Brusque 2+ goals

19%

Brusque 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chapecoense-sc (draw refunded)

72%

Brusque (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapecoense-sc at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.95 · 96 matches

Brusque away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.68 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapecoense-sc attack 1.22 + Brusque defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Brusque attack 0.63 + Chapecoense-sc defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chapecoense-sc scores more

53%

level

27%

Brusque scores more

20%

Chapecoense-sc at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chapecoense-sc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Bruno Leonardo

Chapecoense-sc · D

8.2

Match Events

13'

Dentinho

32'

Marcos Serrato

34'

Olávio↳ Paulinho Moccelin

46'

Daniel Cruz← Foguinho

46'

Rafael Carvalheira← Thomás Bedinelli

60'

Dentinho

60'

Dentinho

63'

Rafael Carvalheira

64'

Giovanni Augusto← Tárik

69'

Diego Tavares← Olávio

69'

Maurício← Paulinho Moccelin

75'

Thayllon← Marlone

79'

Diego Mathias← Dionísio

79'

Madison← Rodolfo Potiguar

85'

Bruno Leonardo

87'

Rafael Rech← Marcelinho

87'

Wellissol← Matheus Pivô

90+3'

Daniel Cruz

90+2'

Bruno Leonardo

90'

Rafinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Chapecoense-scBrusque

Overview

66%Possession34%

28Total Shots6

1.80Expected Goals (xG)0.85

5Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

28Total Shots6

6On Target3

11Off Target3

11Blocked0

16Inside Box2

12Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

465Total Passes243

383Accurate Passes154

82%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2