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Chanthaburi vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Chanthaburi
Chanthaburi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
8/20/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 2Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chanthaburi50%
×Draw25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chanthaburi
1.59
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.04

Chanthaburi creates 53% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Chanthaburi
1.47
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Chanthaburi
1.10
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw
75%
Chanthaburi or Nakhon Si Thammarat
75%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
50%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+
26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals
80%
Chanthaburi 2+ goals
47%
Chanthaburi 3+ goals
21%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
65%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
28%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)
67%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 1.47 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Chanthaburi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chanthaburi scores more
50%
level
25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
25%

Chanthaburi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chanthaburi vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Chanthaburi beat Nakhon Si Thammarat 4-1 in Thai League 2 on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Chanthaburi Stadium in Chanthaburi.