Changwon City 0–1 Mokpo City: Result & Stats

Changwon City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mokpo City

3/23/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundChangwon Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Changwon City48%

×Draw23%

Mokpo City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changwon CityExpected goals in this matchMokpo City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.40

Changwon City

1.85

Mokpo City

1.40

Changwon City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Changwon City

2.50

Mokpo City

1.40

allows per match

Changwon City

1.40

Mokpo City

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changwon City+0.00on par

Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changwon City ↓

Mokpo City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Changwon City or draw

71%

Changwon City or Mokpo City

77%

Draw or Mokpo City

52%

Winning margin

Changwon City wins by 2+

26%

Mokpo City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Changwon City 1+ goals

84%

Changwon City 2+ goals

55%

Changwon City 3+ goals

28%

Mokpo City 1+ goals

75%

Mokpo City 2+ goals

41%

Mokpo City 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Changwon City (draw refunded)

62%

Mokpo City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changwon City at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changwon City attack 2.50 + Mokpo City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mokpo City attack 1.40 + Changwon City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Changwon City scores more

48%

level

23%

Mokpo City scores more

29%

Changwon City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff