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Changnyeong W vs Hwacheon KSPO W — WK-League 2026

Changnyeong W
Changnyeong W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hwacheon KSPO W
Hwacheon KSPO W
3/31/2023WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 3Changning Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Changnyeong W21%
×Draw24%
Hwacheon KSPO W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changnyeong W
0.94
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.67

Hwacheon KSPO W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 78 away

creates per match

Changnyeong W
0.75
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.49

allows per match

Changnyeong W
1.84
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.13

finishing

Changnyeong W+0.00on par
Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changnyeong W ↓

Hwacheon KSPO W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Changnyeong W or draw
46%
Changnyeong W or Hwacheon KSPO W
76%
Draw or Hwacheon KSPO W
79%

Winning margin

Changnyeong W wins by 2+
7%
Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Changnyeong W 1+ goals
61%
Changnyeong W 2+ goals
24%
Changnyeong W 3+ goals
7%
Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals
81%
Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals
50%
Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Changnyeong W (draw refunded)
28%
Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changnyeong W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.84 · 75 matches

Hwacheon KSPO W away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changnyeong W attack 0.75 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.49 + Changnyeong W defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Changnyeong W scores more
21%
level
24%
Hwacheon KSPO W scores more
54%

Hwacheon KSPO W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hwacheon KSPO W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Changnyeong W vs Hwacheon KSPO W

Changnyeong W beat Hwacheon KSPO W 2-1 in WK-League on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Changning Sports Park in Bugok.