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Changnyeong W vs Gyeongju W — WK-League 2026

Changnyeong W
Changnyeong W
Preview
05:00
Gyeongju W
Gyeongju W
9/5/2026WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 24
Big match
58%
Gyeongju W
model favours
20%23%58%

Changnyeong W score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Changnyeong W20%
×Draw23%
Gyeongju W58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changnyeong W
0.96
Gyeongju W
1.83

Gyeongju W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

Changnyeong W
0.75
Gyeongju W
1.81

allows per match

Changnyeong W
1.84
Gyeongju W
1.17

finishing

Changnyeong W+0.00on par
Gyeongju W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changnyeong W ↓

Gyeongju W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Changnyeong W or draw
42%
Changnyeong W or Gyeongju W
77%
Draw or Gyeongju W
80%

Winning margin

Changnyeong W wins by 2+
7%
Gyeongju W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Changnyeong W 1+ goals
62%
Changnyeong W 2+ goals
25%
Changnyeong W 3+ goals
7%
Gyeongju W 1+ goals
84%
Gyeongju W 2+ goals
54%
Gyeongju W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Changnyeong W (draw refunded)
25%
Gyeongju W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changnyeong W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.84 · 75 matches

Gyeongju W away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changnyeong W attack 0.75 + Gyeongju W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Gyeongju W attack 1.81 + Changnyeong W defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Changnyeong W scores more
20%
level
23%
Gyeongju W scores more
58%

Gyeongju W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gyeongju W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gyeongju W score first in only 23% of matches
  • Gyeongju W have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 85% of Gyeongju W’s matches
  • Gyeongju W have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 69% of Gyeongju W’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLDL
W
WWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Changnyeong W vs Gyeongju W — Match Preview

Changnyeong W face Gyeongju W on September 5, 2026 in this WK-League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.