Changnyeong W 0–1 Gumi Sportstoto W: Result & Stats

Changnyeong W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gumi Sportstoto W

5/24/2024

WK-League · Round 13Changning Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Changnyeong W29%

×Draw26%

Gumi Sportstoto W44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changnyeong WExpected goals in this matchGumi Sportstoto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.42

Changnyeong W

1.10

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.42

Gumi Sportstoto W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

0.75

creates per match

1.00

1.84

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Changnyeong W

0.75

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.00

allows per match

Changnyeong W

1.84

Gumi Sportstoto W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changnyeong W+0.00on par

Gumi Sportstoto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changnyeong W ↓

Gumi Sportstoto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Changnyeong W or draw

56%

Changnyeong W or Gumi Sportstoto W

74%

Draw or Gumi Sportstoto W

71%

Winning margin

Changnyeong W wins by 2+

11%

Gumi Sportstoto W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Changnyeong W 1+ goals

67%

Changnyeong W 2+ goals

30%

Changnyeong W 3+ goals

10%

Gumi Sportstoto W 1+ goals

76%

Gumi Sportstoto W 2+ goals

41%

Gumi Sportstoto W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Changnyeong W (draw refunded)

40%

Gumi Sportstoto W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changnyeong W at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.84 · 75 matches

Gumi Sportstoto W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changnyeong W attack 0.75 + Gumi Sportstoto W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gumi Sportstoto W attack 1.00 + Changnyeong W defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Changnyeong W scores more

29%

level

26%

Gumi Sportstoto W scores more

44%

Gumi Sportstoto W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gumi Sportstoto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff