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Cham vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
Preview
14:00
Weiden
Weiden
11/14/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 19
Big match
54%
Cham
model favours
54%22%24%
1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Cham54%
×Draw22%
Weiden24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.93
Weiden
1.21

Cham creates 60% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 50 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Weiden
1.76

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cham or draw
76%
Cham or Weiden
78%
Draw or Weiden
46%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
31%
Weiden wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
85%
Cham 2+ goals
57%
Cham 3+ goals
30%
Weiden 1+ goals
70%
Weiden 2+ goals
34%
Weiden 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
69%
Weiden (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.93

Weiden attack 1.32 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cham scores more
54%
level
22%
Weiden scores more
24%

Cham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cham
LLL
Weiden
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cham vs Weiden — Match Preview

Cham face Weiden on November 14, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.