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Cham vs Stadeln — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
Preview
14:00
Stadeln
Stadeln
11/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21
64%
Cham
model favours
64%20%16%

Cham sit 2, Stadeln 15 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cham64%
×Draw20%
Stadeln16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
2.05
Stadeln
0.90

Cham creates 128% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Stadeln
0.69

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Stadeln
2.00

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Stadeln+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Stadeln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cham or draw
84%
Cham or Stadeln
80%
Draw or Stadeln
36%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
40%
Stadeln wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
87%
Cham 2+ goals
61%
Cham 3+ goals
33%
Stadeln 1+ goals
59%
Stadeln 2+ goals
23%
Stadeln 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
80%
Stadeln (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Stadeln away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Stadeln defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Stadeln attack 0.69 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cham scores more
64%
level
20%
Stadeln scores more
16%

Cham at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cham
LLL
Stadeln
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cham face Stadeln (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Cham hosting Stadeln. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.