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Cham vs Kornburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
Preview
12:00
Kornburg
Kornburg
5/22/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 34
Big match
53%
Cham
model favours
53%22%25%

Kornburg win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cham53%
×Draw22%
Kornburg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.93
Kornburg
1.27

Cham creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Kornburg
1.44

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Kornburg
1.76

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Kornburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Kornburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cham or draw
75%
Cham or Kornburg
78%
Draw or Kornburg
47%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
30%
Kornburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
85%
Cham 2+ goals
57%
Cham 3+ goals
30%
Kornburg 1+ goals
72%
Kornburg 2+ goals
36%
Kornburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
68%
Kornburg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Kornburg away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Kornburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kornburg attack 1.44 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cham scores more
53%
level
22%
Kornburg scores more
25%

Cham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • Cham sit 2, Kornburg 12 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cham
LLL
Kornburg
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cham host Kornburg

May 22, 2027: Cham take on Kornburg in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.