Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cham vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
Preview
14:00
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
4/10/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 27
Big match
47%
Cham
model favours
47%23%31%
1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cham47%
×Draw23%
Ingolstadt II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.83
Ingolstadt II
1.45

Cham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cham or draw
69%
Cham or Ingolstadt II
77%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
53%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
25%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
84%
Cham 2+ goals
54%
Cham 3+ goals
28%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
77%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
42%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
60%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cham scores more
47%
level
23%
Ingolstadt II scores more
31%

Cham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cham
LLL
II
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cham face Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Cham hosting Ingolstadt II. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.