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Cham vs Großbardorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
Preview
17:00
Großbardorf
Großbardorf
4/27/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30
57%
Cham
model favours
57%21%22%

Großbardorf win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cham57%
×Draw21%
Großbardorf22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
2.11
Großbardorf
1.25

Cham creates 69% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Großbardorf
1.41

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Großbardorf
2.12

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Großbardorf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Großbardorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Cham or draw
78%
Cham or Großbardorf
79%
Draw or Großbardorf
43%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
34%
Großbardorf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
88%
Cham 2+ goals
62%
Cham 3+ goals
35%
Großbardorf 1+ goals
71%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
36%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
72%
Großbardorf (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Großbardorf away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Großbardorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.11

Großbardorf attack 1.41 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cham scores more
57%
level
21%
Großbardorf scores more
22%

Cham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cham
LLL
Großbardorf
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cham host Großbardorf

April 27, 2027: Cham take on Großbardorf in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.