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Cham vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
Preview
17:00
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
8/14/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5
Big match
45%
Cham
model favours
45%22%32%

Top-of-the-table clash — Cham 2 vs Gebenbach 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cham45%
×Draw22%
Gebenbach32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.86
Gebenbach
1.54

Cham creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Cham
1.10
Gebenbach
1.62

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cham or draw
68%
Cham or Gebenbach
78%
Draw or Gebenbach
55%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
25%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
84%
Cham 2+ goals
55%
Cham 3+ goals
28%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
79%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
45%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
58%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cham scores more
45%
level
22%
Gebenbach scores more
32%

Cham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cham
LLL
Gebenbach
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cham face Gebenbach (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Cham hosting Gebenbach. Match starts August 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.