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Cham vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Cham
Cham
Preview
17:00
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
10/23/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 16
Big match
51%
Cham
model favours
51%22%27%

Top-of-the-table clash — Cham 2 vs ASV Neumarkt 3

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cham51%
×Draw22%
ASV Neumarkt27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cham
1.94
ASV Neumarkt
1.34

Cham creates 45% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Cham
2.10
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Cham
1.10
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Cham+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cham ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cham or draw
73%
Cham or ASV Neumarkt
78%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
49%

Winning margin

Cham wins by 2+
29%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cham 1+ goals
86%
Cham 2+ goals
58%
Cham 3+ goals
30%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
74%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
39%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cham (draw refunded)
66%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cham at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cham attack 2.10 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.94

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Cham defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cham scores more
51%
level
22%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
27%

Cham at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cham
LLL
Neumarkt
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cham vs ASV Neumarkt — Match Preview

Cham face ASV Neumarkt on October 23, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.