Chainat 0–0 Nakhon Si Thammarat: Result & Stats

Chainat

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nakhon Si Thammarat

2/7/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 23Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chainat51%

×Draw24%

Nakhon Si Thammarat25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChainatExpected goals in this matchNakhon Si Thammarat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.08

Chainat

1.67

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.08

Chainat creates 55% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 69 away

1.63

creates per match

0.97

1.19

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Chainat

1.63

Nakhon Si Thammarat

0.97

allows per match

Chainat

1.19

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Chainat or draw

75%

Chainat or Nakhon Si Thammarat

76%

Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat

49%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+

27%

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals

81%

Chainat 2+ goals

50%

Chainat 3+ goals

23%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

66%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

29%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)

67%

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chainat scores more

51%

level

24%

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

25%

Chainat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff