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Chainat vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
12/10/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 15Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chainat44%
×Draw26%
Esan Pattaya30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.45
Esan Pattaya
1.15

Chainat creates 26% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Esan Pattaya
1.10

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Esan Pattaya
1.27

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
70%
Chainat or Esan Pattaya
74%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
56%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
21%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
77%
Chainat 2+ goals
42%
Chainat 3+ goals
18%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
68%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
32%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
59%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chainat scores more
44%
level
26%
Esan Pattaya scores more
30%

Chainat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chainat 1–4 Esan Pattaya

Esan Pattaya beat Chainat 4-1 in Thai League 2 on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.