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Chainat vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
3 – 1
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
2/24/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chainat45%
×Draw25%
Chiangmai FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.51
Chiangmai FC
1.19

Chainat creates 27% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 82 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Chiangmai FC
1.20

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Chiangmai FC
1.39

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
70%
Chainat or Chiangmai FC
75%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
55%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
22%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
78%
Chainat 2+ goals
44%
Chainat 3+ goals
19%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
70%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
33%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
60%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chainat scores more
45%
level
25%
Chiangmai FC scores more
30%

Chainat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chainat vs Chiangmai FC

Chainat beat Chiangmai FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.