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Chadormalu SC vs Mes Rafsanjan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
PST
15:15
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
3/6/2026Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 24Nassiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chadormalu SC45%
×Draw31%
Mes Rafsanjan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.14
Mes Rafsanjan
0.76

Chadormalu SC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 86 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.15
Mes Rafsanjan
0.93

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.58
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
76%
Chadormalu SC or Mes Rafsanjan
69%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
55%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
19%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
68%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
32%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
11%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
53%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
18%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
65%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.58 · 26 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.15 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
45%
level
31%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
24%

Chadormalu SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chadormalu SC face Mes Rafsanjan (Persian Gulf Pro League)

Persian Gulf Pro League returns with Chadormalu SC hosting Mes Rafsanjan. Match starts March 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chadormalu SC host Mes Rafsanjan at Nassiri Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.