Chabab Ben Guerir 1–0 Rapide Oued ZEM

Chabab Ben Guerir

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rapide Oued ZEM

2/9/2023

Cup · Round of 32Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir45%

×Draw28%

Rapide Oued ZEM27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Ben GuerirExpected goals in this matchRapide Oued ZEM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.96

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.33

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.96

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

0.25

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.67

Rapide Oued ZEM

0.25

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir

1.67

Rapide Oued ZEM

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw

73%

Chabab Ben Guerir or Rapide Oued ZEM

72%

Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM

55%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+

21%

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals

74%

Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals

38%

Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals

15%

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals

62%

Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals

25%

Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)

63%

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 1.67 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.25 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more

45%

level

28%

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more

27%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff