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Chabab Ben Guerir vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
12/3/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 13Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir40%
×Draw32%
Raja Beni Mellal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
1.03
Raja Beni Mellal
0.82

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 26% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 105 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.93
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
72%
Chabab Ben Guerir or Raja Beni Mellal
68%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
60%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
16%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
64%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
28%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
9%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
56%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
20%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
58%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
40%
level
32%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
28%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Ben Guerir 0–0 Raja Beni Mellal

Chabab Ben Guerir and Raja Beni Mellal drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.