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Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
FT
1 – 1
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
Unknown 90+3'
Y. Ouganna 72'
1/22/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 7Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra43%
×Draw30%
KAC Kenitra27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.15
KAC Kenitra
0.85

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 35% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 73 away

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.03
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.78
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw
73%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or KAC Kenitra
70%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
57%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
18%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
68%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
32%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
11%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
57%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
21%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
61%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.78 · 116 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.03 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
43%
level
30%
KAC Kenitra scores more
27%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
Y. Ouganna
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1–1 KAC Kenitra

Chabab Atl. Khenifra and KAC Kenitra drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on January 22, 2021.

Goals: Y. Ouganna (72'), ? (90+3').

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Khénifra.