Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3–2 Ittihad Khemisset

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

FT

3 – 2

Ittihad Khemisset

2/16/2020

Botola 2 · Round 19Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra41%

×Draw30%

Ittihad Khemisset29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab Atl. KhenifraExpected goals in this matchIttihad Khemisset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.92

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.15

Ittihad Khemisset

0.92

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 25% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

1.02

creates per match

1.03

0.80

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

1.02

Ittihad Khemisset

1.03

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

0.80

Ittihad Khemisset

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw

71%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or Ittihad Khemisset

70%

Draw or Ittihad Khemisset

59%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+

17%

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals

68%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals

32%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals

11%

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals

60%

Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals

23%

Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)

58%

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more

41%

level

30%

Ittihad Khemisset scores more

29%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff