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Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs AS Salé — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
FT
0 – 1
AS Salé
AS Salé
3/1/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra46%
×Draw29%
AS Salé25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.26
AS Salé
0.86

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 47% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 90 away

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.02
AS Salé
0.92

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.80
AS Salé
1.50

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par
AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

AS Salé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw
75%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or AS Salé
71%
Draw or AS Salé
54%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
21%
AS Salé wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
72%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
36%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
13%
AS Salé 1+ goals
58%
AS Salé 2+ goals
21%
AS Salé 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
64%
AS Salé (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + AS Salé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

AS Salé attack 0.92 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
46%
level
29%
AS Salé scores more
25%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Atl. Khenifra 0–1 AS Salé

AS Salé beat Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1-0 in Botola 2 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Khénifra.