CFR 1907 Cluj 0–1 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FCSB

M. Edjouma 88'

2/5/2023

Liga I · Round 24Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj43%

×Draw24%

FCSB33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.41

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.66

FCSB

1.41

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.58

creates per match

1.73

1.09

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.58

FCSB

1.73

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.09

FCSB

1.74

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.09on par

FCSB-0.06on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

67%

CFR 1907 Cluj or FCSB

76%

Draw or FCSB

57%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

22%

FCSB wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

81%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

49%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

23%

FCSB 1+ goals

76%

FCSB 2+ goals

41%

FCSB 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

57%

FCSB (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.74 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.58 + FCSB defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.66

FCSB attack 1.73 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

43%

level

24%

FCSB scores more

33%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Octavian Popescu

2'

Andrea Compagno

39'

Ermal Krasniqi

46'

C. Deac← L. Cvek

61'

E. Yeboah← R. Janga

61'

D. Bîrligea← C. Petrila

66'

D. Miculescu← A. Compagno

69'

David Miculescu

81'

Cristian Manea

84'

D. Haruţ← I. Cristea

88'

M. Edjouma↳ Octavian Popescu

90+8'

Ștefan Târnovanu

90+3'

B. Omrani← Octavian Popescu

Possession

Shots

Statistics

CFRFCSB

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots14

2Corners6

15Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots14

5On Target5

1Off Target7

1Blocked2

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0