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CF Pachuca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
O. Idrissi 120+8' (pen)
A. Bautista 120+6' (pen)
S. Rondón 120+2' (pen)
R. Ergas 120+9' (pen)
U. Rivas 120+7' (pen)
C. Huerta 120+5' (pen)
A. Aldrete 120+3' (pen)
G. Martínez 120+1' (pen)
5/3/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - ReclasificacionEstadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

CF Pachuca41%
×Draw29%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.23
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.00

CF Pachuca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.13
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.18

allows per match

CF Pachuca
0.83
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.33

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.49scores more
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.32scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
70%
CF Pachuca or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
71%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
59%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
18%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
71%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
35%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
13%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
63%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
58%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 13 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.13 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.18 + CF Pachuca defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
41%
level
29%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
30%

CF Pachuca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. GonzálezU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · G
8.6

Match Events

28'
Nathan Silva
41'
Miguel Rodriguez
44'
Luís RodríguezRed card cancelled
45+1'
Luís Rodríguez
56'
N. Deossa← J. Saldívar
56'
O. Idrissi← M. Rodríguez
56'
S. Rondón← S. Aguayo
58'
G. Martínez← R. Funes Mori
58'
J. Rivas← E. Salvio
58'
R. Ergas← P. Monroy
70'
Sergio Barreto
76'
J. Hernández← R. de la Rosa
78'
Guillermo Martínez
79'
S. Trigos← P. Quispe
84'
O. González← E. Montiel
90+1'
Salomón RondónGoal cancelled
90+3'
A. Aldrete← P. Bennevendo
120+1'
G. MartínezPenalty
120+2'
S. RondónPenalty
120+3'
A. AldretePenalty
120+4'
J. HernándezMissed penalty
120+5'
C. HuertaPenalty
120+6'
A. BautistaPenalty
120+7'
U. RivasPenalty
120+8'
O. IdrissiPenalty
120+9'
R. ErgasPenalty

Possession

64%CF

Shots

15CF

Pass accuracy

55%CF

Statistics

CFU.N.A.M.
Overview
64%Possession36%
15Total Shots8
7Corners0
10Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots8
6On Target3
7Off Target1
2Blocked4
4Inside Box5
11Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
442Total Passes256
381Accurate Passes179
86%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
6Offsides1

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 0–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

CF Pachuca and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 0-0 in Liga MX on May 3, 2024.

Goals: G. Martínez (120+1' pen), S. Rondón (120+2' pen), A. Aldrete (120+3' pen), C. Huerta (120+5' pen), A. Bautista (120+6' pen), U. Rivas (120+7' pen), O. Idrissi (120+8' pen), R. Ergas (120+9' pen).

CF Pachuca controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.