CF Pachuca 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

10/27/2020

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

CF Pachuca41%

×Draw29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.00

CF Pachuca

1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.00

CF Pachuca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.13

creates per match

1.18

0.83

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.13

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.18

allows per match

CF Pachuca

0.83

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.33

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.49scores more

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

70%

CF Pachuca or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

71%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

59%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

71%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

35%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

13%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

63%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

58%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 13 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.13 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.18 + CF Pachuca defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

41%

level

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

30%

CF Pachuca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff