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CF Pachuca vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Preview
00:00
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
9/21/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Big match
60%
CF Pachuca
model favours
60%23%17%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

CF Pachuca60%
×Draw23%
Club Tijuana17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.77
Club Tijuana
0.82

CF Pachuca creates 116% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.15
Club Tijuana
0.88

allows per match

CF Pachuca
0.77
Club Tijuana
2.40

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.35scores more
Club Tijuana+0.12scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
83%
CF Pachuca or Club Tijuana
77%
Draw or Club Tijuana
40%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
34%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
83%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
53%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
26%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
56%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
20%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
78%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 12 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.40 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.15 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + CF Pachuca defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
60%
level
23%
Club Tijuana scores more
17%

CF Pachuca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Club Tijuana are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Club Tijuana score first in only 24% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 31% of Club Tijuana’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
CF Pachuca
Defensively solid
Club Tijuana
Balanced
50%Possession46%
82%Pass accuracy81%
14.8ShotsBiggest gap10.6
1.10xG1.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CF PachucaClub Tijuana

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
CF Pachuca
0
Draws
3
Club Tijuana
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 80%
1–30–24–11–23–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pachuca
WLWWW
Tijuana
DWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CF Pachuca face Club Tijuana (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with CF Pachuca hosting Club Tijuana. Match starts September 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CF Pachuca host Club Tijuana at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.