CF Pachuca 6–1 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Club Tijuana

9/12/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

CF Pachuca59%

×Draw23%

Club Tijuana18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.85

CF Pachuca

1.76

Club Tijuana

0.85

CF Pachuca creates 107% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.13

creates per match

0.88

0.83

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.13

Club Tijuana

0.88

allows per match

CF Pachuca

0.83

Club Tijuana

2.40

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.49scores more

Club Tijuana+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

82%

CF Pachuca or Club Tijuana

77%

Draw or Club Tijuana

41%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

33%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

83%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

52%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

26%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

57%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

21%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

77%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 13 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.40 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.13 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + CF Pachuca defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

59%

level

23%

Club Tijuana scores more

18%

CF Pachuca at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff