CF Pachuca 2–1 Club America: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Club America

N. Deossa 14'

M. Rodríguez 12'

H. Martín 23'

5/1/2024

CONCACAF Champions League · Semi-finalsEstadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CF Pachuca58%

×Draw22%

Club America20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.06

CF Pachuca

1.96

Club America

1.06

CF Pachuca creates 85% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

2.80

creates per match

1.53

0.60

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

CF Pachuca

2.80

Club America

1.53

allows per match

CF Pachuca

0.60

Club America

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Club America+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

80%

CF Pachuca or Club America

78%

Draw or Club America

42%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

34%

Club America wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

86%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

58%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

31%

Club America 1+ goals

65%

Club America 2+ goals

29%

Club America 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

74%

Club America (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Club America away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 2.80 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Club America attack 1.53 + CF Pachuca defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

58%

level

22%

Club America scores more

20%

CF Pachuca at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

N. Deossa

CF Pachuca · M

8.5

Match Events

4'

R. Juárez← S. Cáceres

12'

M. Rodríguez

14'

N. Deossa

23'

H. Martín↳ Á. Zendejas

45+3'

Gustavo Cabral

47'

Jonathan Dos Santos

55'

Ramón Juárez

55'

A. Bautista← M. Rodríguez

59'

K. Álvarez← R. Juárez

59'

R. Sánchez← J. dos Santos

62'

Jorge Berlanga

68'

E. Montiel← É. Sánchez

68'

J. Hernández← O. Idrissi

68'

B. Rodríguez← Á. Zendejas

68'

S. Reyes← C. Calderón

71'

Igor Lichnovsky

73'

Andres Arroyo

74'

S. Barreto← A. Micolta

85'

Pedro Pedraza

90+2'

Bryan González

90'

Israel Reyes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFClub

Overview

32%Possession68%

19Total Shots7

3Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots7

9On Target2

3Off Target2

7Blocked3

10Inside Box4

9Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

248Total Passes545

169Accurate Passes459

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls13

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2