CF Pachuca 0–3 Club America: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Club America

8/18/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

CF Pachuca39%

×Draw29%

Club America32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchClub America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.02

CF Pachuca

1.17

Club America

1.02

CF Pachuca creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.13

creates per match

1.22

0.83

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.13

Club America

1.22

allows per match

CF Pachuca

0.83

Club America

1.22

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.49scores more

Club America-0.09on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Club America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

68%

CF Pachuca or Club America

71%

Draw or Club America

61%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

17%

Club America wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

69%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

33%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

11%

Club America 1+ goals

64%

Club America 2+ goals

27%

Club America 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

55%

Club America (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 13 matches

Club America away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.13 + Club America defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Club America attack 1.22 + CF Pachuca defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

39%

level

29%

Club America scores more

32%

CF Pachuca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff