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CF Montreal vs Toronto FC — Major League Soccer 2018

CF Montreal
CF Montreal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Toronto FC
Toronto FC
7/13/2019Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 24Saputo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal36%
×Draw27%
Toronto FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Montreal
1.24
Toronto FC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

CF Montreal
1.14
Toronto FC
1.03

allows per match

CF Montreal
1.46
Toronto FC
1.34

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less
Toronto FC+0.08on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Toronto FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw
63%
CF Montreal or Toronto FC
73%
Draw or Toronto FC
64%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+
16%
Toronto FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals
71%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
35%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
13%
Toronto FC 1+ goals
71%
Toronto FC 2+ goals
36%
Toronto FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)
50%
Toronto FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

Toronto FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Toronto FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Toronto FC attack 1.03 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CF Montreal scores more
36%
level
27%
Toronto FC scores more
37%

Toronto FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Toronto FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Montreal vs Toronto FC

Toronto FC beat CF Montreal 2-0 in Major League Soccer on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Saputo Stadium in Montreal.