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CF Montreal vs New York Red Bulls — Major League Soccer 2018

CF Montreal
CF Montreal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls
10/6/2019Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 41Saputo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal37%
×Draw26%
New York Red Bulls37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Montreal
1.38
New York Red Bulls
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

CF Montreal
1.14
New York Red Bulls
1.28

allows per match

CF Montreal
1.46
New York Red Bulls
1.62

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less
New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

New York Red Bulls →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw
63%
CF Montreal or New York Red Bulls
74%
Draw or New York Red Bulls
63%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+
17%
New York Red Bulls wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals
75%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
40%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
16%
New York Red Bulls 1+ goals
75%
New York Red Bulls 2+ goals
40%
New York Red Bulls 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)
50%
New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CF Montreal scores more
37%
level
26%
New York Red Bulls scores more
37%

CF Montreal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Montreal vs New York Red Bulls

CF Montreal beat New York Red Bulls 3-0 in Major League Soccer on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Saputo Stadium in Montreal.