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CF Montreal vs New York City FC — Major League Soccer 2018

CF Montreal
CF Montreal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
New York City FC
New York City FC
7/1/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 30Stade Saputo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal34%
×Draw27%
New York City FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Montreal
1.22
New York City FC
1.34

New York City FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

CF Montreal
1.14
New York City FC
1.23

allows per match

CF Montreal
1.46
New York City FC
1.30

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less
New York City FC+0.14scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

New York City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw
60%
CF Montreal or New York City FC
73%
Draw or New York City FC
66%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+
14%
New York City FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals
70%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
34%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
12%
New York City FC 1+ goals
74%
New York City FC 2+ goals
39%
New York City FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)
46%
New York City FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

New York City FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + New York City FC defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

New York City FC attack 1.23 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CF Montreal scores more
34%
level
27%
New York City FC scores more
40%

New York City FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Montreal vs New York City FC

New York City FC beat CF Montreal 1-0 in Major League Soccer on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Saputo in Montreal, Quebec.