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CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati — Major League Soccer 2018

CF Montreal
CF Montreal
FT
5 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
7/17/2021Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 17Stade Saputo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal37%
×Draw25%
FC Cincinnati37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Montreal
1.40
FC Cincinnati
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

CF Montreal
1.14
FC Cincinnati
1.33

allows per match

CF Montreal
1.46
FC Cincinnati
1.65

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less
FC Cincinnati+0.35scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw
63%
CF Montreal or FC Cincinnati
75%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
63%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+
17%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals
75%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
41%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
17%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
75%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
41%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)
50%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Cincinnati attack 1.33 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CF Montreal scores more
37%
level
25%
FC Cincinnati scores more
37%

CF Montreal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Montreal vs FC Cincinnati

CF Montreal beat FC Cincinnati 5-4 in Major League Soccer on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Saputo in Montreal, Quebec.