CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew — Major League Soccer 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 14+ matches
CF Montreal35%
Columbus Crew39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 14 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CF Montreal ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches
Columbus Crew away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Columbus Crew defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27
Columbus Crew attack 1.27 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Columbus Crew at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
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Atlanta United FC
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles FC
FC Dallas
New York City FC
Portland Timbers
DC UnitedColumbus Crew
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
Vancouver Whitecaps
New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids
Orlando City SC
San Jose EarthquakesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
CF Montreal host Columbus Crew on Saturday, 13 April 2019 at 17:00. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew
CF Montreal beat Columbus Crew 1-0 in Major League Soccer on April 13, 2019.
The match was played at Saputo Stadium in Montreal.