CF Montreal 2–2 Chicago Fire: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chicago Fire

10/3/2020

Major League Soccer · Round 16Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal33%

×Draw26%

Chicago Fire42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchChicago Fire

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.46

CF Montreal

1.26

Chicago Fire

1.46

Chicago Fire creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.14

creates per match

1.45

1.46

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.14

Chicago Fire

1.45

allows per match

CF Montreal

1.46

Chicago Fire

1.38

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.50scores more than expected

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less

Chicago Fire+0.50scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Chicago Fire →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

58%

CF Montreal or Chicago Fire

74%

Draw or Chicago Fire

67%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

14%

Chicago Fire wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

72%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

36%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

13%

Chicago Fire 1+ goals

77%

Chicago Fire 2+ goals

43%

Chicago Fire 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

44%

Chicago Fire (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

Chicago Fire away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Chicago Fire defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Chicago Fire attack 1.45 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CF Montreal scores more

33%

level

26%

Chicago Fire scores more

42%

Chicago Fire at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chicago Fire will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff