CF Montreal 2–1 Atlanta United FC: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlanta United FC

10/2/2021

Major League Soccer · Round 37Stade Saputo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

CF Montreal41%

×Draw25%

Atlanta United FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchAtlanta United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.34

CF Montreal

1.51

Atlanta United FC

1.34

CF Montreal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.46

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.14

Atlanta United FC

1.22

allows per match

CF Montreal

1.46

Atlanta United FC

1.88

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.59scores less than expected

finishing

CF Montreal-0.14scores less

Atlanta United FC-0.59scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Atlanta United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

66%

CF Montreal or Atlanta United FC

75%

Draw or Atlanta United FC

59%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

20%

Atlanta United FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

78%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

44%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

19%

Atlanta United FC 1+ goals

74%

Atlanta United FC 2+ goals

39%

Atlanta United FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

55%

Atlanta United FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 14 matches

Atlanta United FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.14 + Atlanta United FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atlanta United FC attack 1.22 + CF Montreal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CF Montreal scores more

41%

level

25%

Atlanta United FC scores more

34%

CF Montreal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff