Ceuta II 0–1 Sevilla III: Result & Stats

Ceuta II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sevilla III

12/7/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Estadio José Martínez Pirri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Ceuta II48%

×Draw29%

Sevilla III23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceuta IIExpected goals in this matchSevilla III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.77

Ceuta II

1.27

Sevilla III

0.77

Ceuta II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 111 away

1.35

creates per match

0.85

0.70

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ceuta II

1.35

Sevilla III

0.85

allows per match

Ceuta II

0.70

Sevilla III

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

Sevilla III →

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw

77%

Ceuta II or Sevilla III

71%

Draw or Sevilla III

52%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+

22%

Sevilla III wins by 2+

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals

72%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

36%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

14%

Sevilla III 1+ goals

54%

Sevilla III 2+ goals

18%

Sevilla III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

68%

Sevilla III (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ceuta II scores more

48%

level

29%

Sevilla III scores more

23%

Ceuta II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff