Ceuta II 1–1 Córdoba II: Result & Stats

Ceuta II

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Córdoba II

9/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio José Martínez Pirri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Ceuta II47%

×Draw28%

Córdoba II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceuta IIExpected goals in this matchCórdoba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.91

Ceuta II

1.35

Córdoba II

0.91

Ceuta II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 110 away

1.35

creates per match

1.13

0.70

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ceuta II

1.35

Córdoba II

1.13

allows per match

Ceuta II

0.70

Córdoba II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta II ↓

Córdoba II →

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ceuta II or draw

75%

Ceuta II or Córdoba II

72%

Draw or Córdoba II

53%

Winning margin

Ceuta II wins by 2+

22%

Córdoba II wins by 2+

Team goals

Ceuta II 1+ goals

74%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

39%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

15%

Córdoba II 1+ goals

60%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

23%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

65%

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ceuta II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.70 · 83 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta II attack 1.35 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Ceuta II defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ceuta II scores more

47%

level

28%

Córdoba II scores more

25%

Ceuta II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ceuta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff