Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Český lev - Union Beroun vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
PST
14:00
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 19Stadion Na Máchovně (Beroun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun41%
×Draw22%
Otava Katovice37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.79
Otava Katovice
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 56 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
63%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Otava Katovice
78%
Draw or Otava Katovice
59%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
21%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
83%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
53%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
26%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
82%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
50%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
53%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
41%
level
22%
Otava Katovice scores more
37%

Český lev - Union Beroun at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Český lev - Union Beroun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Český lev - Union Beroun host Otava Katovice

March 29, 2020: Český lev - Union Beroun take on Otava Katovice in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Český lev - Union Beroun host Otava Katovice at Stadion Na Máchovně (Beroun).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.