České Budějovice 0–3 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

České Budějovice

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Praha

M. Škoda 84'

P. Olayinka 76'

N. Stanciu 48'

8/16/2019

Czech Liga · Round 6Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice22%

×Draw24%

Slavia Praha54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České BudějoviceExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.74

České Budějovice

1.03

Slavia Praha

1.74

Slavia Praha creates 69% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 121 away

1.20

creates per match

1.95

1.53

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

České Budějovice

1.20

Slavia Praha

1.95

allows per match

České Budějovice

1.53

Slavia Praha

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw

46%

České Budějovice or Slavia Praha

76%

Draw or Slavia Praha

78%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+

8%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals

64%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

28%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

9%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

82%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

52%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

29%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Slavia Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Slavia Praha attack 1.95 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

České Budějovice scores more

22%

level

24%

Slavia Praha scores more

54%

Slavia Praha at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Ondřej Kúdela

34'

Pavel Novak

48'

N. Stanciu

61'

P. Brandner← M. Mršič

65'

M. van Buren← L. Masopust

70'

I. Táborský← P. Čavoš

73'

Jaroslav Zelený

76'

M. Škoda← Abdulla Yusuf Helal

76'

P. Olayinka

78'

Ibrahim Traore← N. Stanciu

79'

M. Helešic← J. Kladrubský

84'

M. Škoda

89'

Ivo Taborsky

Statistics

ČeskéSlavia

Overview

2Corners11

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0