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České Budějovice U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
4/6/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 21SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

České Budějovice U1943%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Plzeň U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice U19
1.84
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.63

České Budějovice U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

České Budějovice U19
2.06
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.57

allows per match

České Budějovice U19
1.68
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.62

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw
65%
České Budějovice U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
78%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
57%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
23%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
84%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
55%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
28%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
80%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
48%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.84

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more
43%
level
22%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
35%

České Budějovice U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19

České Budějovice U19 beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 5-1 in 1. Liga U19 on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at SCM Složiště in České Budějovice.