České Budějovice U19 1–3 Sigma Olomouc U19

České Budějovice U19

FT

1 – 3

Sigma Olomouc U19

8/14/2021

1. Liga U19 · Round 3SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

České Budějovice U1942%

×Draw23%

Sigma Olomouc U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České Budějovice U19Expected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.63

České Budějovice U19

1.77

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

2.06

creates per match

1.57

1.68

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

České Budějovice U19

2.06

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.57

allows per match

České Budějovice U19

1.68

Sigma Olomouc U19

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Sigma Olomouc U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw

64%

České Budějovice U19 or Sigma Olomouc U19

77%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc U19

58%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+

22%

Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals

83%

České Budějovice U19 2+ goals

53%

České Budějovice U19 3+ goals

26%

Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals

80%

Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals

48%

Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Sigma Olomouc U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 1.57 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more

36%

České Budějovice U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff