Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

České Budějovice U19 vs Opava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
CANC
09:00
Opava U19
Opava U19
5/8/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 15SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

České Budějovice U1959%
×Draw20%
Opava U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice U19
2.23
Opava U19
1.28

České Budějovice U19 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 33 away

creates per match

České Budějovice U19
2.06
Opava U19
0.88

allows per match

České Budějovice U19
1.68
Opava U19
2.39

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par
Opava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Opava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw
79%
České Budějovice U19 or Opava U19
80%
Draw or Opava U19
41%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
36%
Opava U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
89%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
65%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
38%
Opava U19 1+ goals
72%
Opava U19 2+ goals
37%
Opava U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Opava U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Opava U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Opava U19 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.23

Opava U19 attack 0.88 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more
59%
level
20%
Opava U19 scores more
21%

České Budějovice U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: České Budějovice U19 host Opava U19

May 8, 2021: České Budějovice U19 take on Opava U19 in 1. Liga U19. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

České Budějovice U19 host Opava U19 at SCM Složiště.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.