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České Budějovice U19 vs Mladá Boleslav U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

České Budějovice U19
České Budějovice U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
9/3/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 5SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

České Budějovice U1949%
×Draw21%
Mladá Boleslav U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice U19
2.05
Mladá Boleslav U19
1.58

České Budějovice U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

České Budějovice U19
2.06
Mladá Boleslav U19
1.48

allows per match

České Budějovice U19
1.68
Mladá Boleslav U19
2.04

finishing

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par
Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice U19 ↓

Mladá Boleslav U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

České Budějovice U19 or draw
70%
České Budějovice U19 or Mladá Boleslav U19
79%
Draw or Mladá Boleslav U19
51%

Winning margin

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+
28%
Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals
87%
České Budějovice U19 2+ goals
61%
České Budějovice U19 3+ goals
33%
Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
79%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
47%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

Mladá Boleslav U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.04 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice U19 attack 2.06 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.05

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.48 + České Budějovice U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

České Budějovice U19 scores more
49%
level
21%
Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
30%

České Budějovice U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "České Budějovice U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: České Budějovice U19 1–0 Mladá Boleslav U19

České Budějovice U19 beat Mladá Boleslav U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at SCM Složiště in České Budějovice.