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České Budějovice II vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
FT
0 – 1
Přeštice
Přeštice
10/16/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 12SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

České Budějovice II43%
×Draw21%
Přeštice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice II
2.08
Přeštice
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

České Budějovice II
3.30
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

České Budějovice II
0.78
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw
64%
České Budějovice II or Přeštice
79%
Draw or Přeštice
57%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+
24%
Přeštice wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals
87%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
61%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
34%
Přeštice 1+ goals
85%
Přeštice 2+ goals
57%
Přeštice 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
54%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 3.30 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 2.08

Přeštice attack 3.04 + České Budějovice II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

České Budějovice II scores more
43%
level
21%
Přeštice scores more
36%

České Budějovice II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

České Budějovice II 0 – 1 Přeštice

Přeštice beat České Budějovice II 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at SCM Složiště in České Budějovice.