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Cesena U20 vs Empoli U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cesena U20
Cesena U20
Preview
10:00
Empoli U20
Empoli U20
2/6/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 23Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro
53%
Cesena U20
model favours
53%22%25%

Empoli U20 raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Cesena U2053%
×Draw22%
Empoli U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena U20
1.91
Empoli U20
1.23

Cesena U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cesena U20
1.82
Empoli U20
1.10

allows per match

Cesena U20
1.36
Empoli U20
2.00

finishing

Cesena U20+0.00on par
Empoli U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena U20 ↓

Empoli U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cesena U20 or draw
75%
Cesena U20 or Empoli U20
78%
Draw or Empoli U20
47%

Winning margin

Cesena U20 wins by 2+
30%
Empoli U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cesena U20 1+ goals
85%
Cesena U20 2+ goals
57%
Cesena U20 3+ goals
30%
Empoli U20 1+ goals
71%
Empoli U20 2+ goals
35%
Empoli U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cesena U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Empoli U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena U20 at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Empoli U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena U20 attack 1.82 + Empoli U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Empoli U20 attack 1.10 + Cesena U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cesena U20 scores more
53%
level
22%
Empoli U20 scores more
25%

Cesena U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cesena U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWWLW
U20
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cesena U20 face Empoli U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Cesena U20 hosting Empoli U20. Match starts February 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cesena U20 host Empoli U20 at Centro Sportivo Romagna Centro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.