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Cerro vs Racing Montevideo — Primera División - Apertura 2021

Cerro
Cerro
Preview
16:00
Racing Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
7/19/2026Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Torneo Intermedio - 6
Big match
37%
Cerro
model favours
37%29%34%

Cerro score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Cerro37%
×Draw29%
Racing Montevideo34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro
1.11
Racing Montevideo
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 42 away

creates per match

Cerro
1.05
Racing Montevideo
1.29

allows per match

Cerro
0.81
Racing Montevideo
1.17

finishing

Cerro+0.00on par
Racing Montevideo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro ↓

Racing Montevideo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cerro or draw
66%
Cerro or Racing Montevideo
71%
Draw or Racing Montevideo
63%

Winning margin

Cerro wins by 2+
15%
Racing Montevideo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cerro 1+ goals
67%
Cerro 2+ goals
30%
Cerro 3+ goals
10%
Racing Montevideo 1+ goals
65%
Racing Montevideo 2+ goals
28%
Racing Montevideo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerro (draw refunded)
52%
Racing Montevideo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.81 · 43 matches

Racing Montevideo away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.17 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro attack 1.05 + Racing Montevideo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Racing Montevideo attack 1.29 + Cerro defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cerro scores more
37%
level
29%
Racing Montevideo scores more
34%

Cerro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cerro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 85% of Racing Montevideo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Racing Montevideo score first in only 31% of matches
  • Racing Montevideo raise their game against the top half — 38% wins vs the upper half, only 31% vs the lower
  • 67% of Cerro’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Cerro sit 16, Racing Montevideo 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cerro
WLLWL
Montevideo
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cerro vs Racing Montevideo — Match Preview

Cerro face Racing Montevideo on July 19, 2026 in this Primera División - Apertura fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.