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Cerro vs Cerro Largo — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Cerro
Cerro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
3/24/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cerro41%
×Draw30%
Cerro Largo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro
1.12
Cerro Largo
0.89

Cerro creates 26% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 78 away

creates per match

Cerro
1.06
Cerro Largo
0.86

allows per match

Cerro
0.92
Cerro Largo
1.18

finishing

Cerro+0.00on par
Cerro Largo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro ↓

Cerro Largo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cerro or draw
71%
Cerro or Cerro Largo
70%
Draw or Cerro Largo
59%

Winning margin

Cerro wins by 2+
17%
Cerro Largo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cerro 1+ goals
67%
Cerro 2+ goals
31%
Cerro 3+ goals
10%
Cerro Largo 1+ goals
59%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
22%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cerro (draw refunded)
59%
Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.92 · 64 matches

Cerro Largo away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.18 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro attack 1.06 + Cerro Largo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cerro Largo attack 0.86 + Cerro defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cerro scores more
41%
level
30%
Cerro Largo scores more
29%

Cerro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cerro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Cerro 1–1 Cerro Largo

Cerro and Cerro Largo drew 1-1 in Primera División - Apertura on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli in Montevideo.